LOD: NC’s New Congressional Map

Republican leaders today released their proposed map of North Carolina’s 13 Congressional districts for the 2012-2020 elections. As expected, they erased nearly all the advantages Democrats drew for themselves when they had control of the crayons. Political observer John Davis produced a detailed analysis of the Republicans “smart mapping,” concluding that the GOP will have 8 solid seats, Democrats keep 3 (Mel Watts, G.K. Butterfield and David Price), and 2 are somewhat in play. For example, the now-contested 7th District (held by Democrat Larry Kissell) becomes safely Republican by giving away some Democratic precincts in Cumberland and Mecklenburg to Price and Watts and picking up GOP precincts in Randolph, Davidson and Rowan. The two majority-minority districts gain more black voters, as does Price’s 4th District, in order to pack Democrats into a few districts and give Republicans a bigger advantage in the remaining areas. Brad Miller still lives in his redrawn 13th District but he has little chance of winning; the new territory includes the home of several likely GOP candidates, including departing US Attorney Robert Holding. The Rothenberg Political Report provides additional insights into possible match-ups and consequences if the new map gains approval. The public hearing for the Congressional map is July 7 and follows a similar pattern of multiple locations linked through video conferencing.

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